Mexico economy shielded from polls, but growth limp
Sitting on a pile of oil cash, Mexico has shielded its economy from potentially volatile elections and plans a budget surplus next year but strong economic growth promised by President Vicente Fox is elusive.
The Finance Ministry has squirreled away funds to ensure foreign debt payments are made until the end of 2007 and the 2006 budget foresees the first fiscal surplus in almost 10 years.
Fox told Reuters the economy, one of Latin America’s stablest, was sound enough to allay fears of any political and market turmoil as a new administration moves into power, traditionally a concern in Mexico.
“I don’t see risk for next year. The electoral process will be on track and the progress of the country, the economic growth, will be on track and the budget and government business will be on track,” Fox said in an interview this week.
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a leftist mistrusted by Wall Street and Mexican business, leads opinion polls by some 10 points in the race to replace Fox next July.
More: today.reuters.com
UPDATE 1-Mexico central bank sees 2006 growth near 3.5 pct
Mexico's central bank governor Guillermo Ortiz said on Thursday the economy will grow close to 3.5 percent this year, a lukewarm performance with presidential elections looming in July.
Ortiz said he expected gross domestic product to rise between 3 and 3.5 percent. "It looks more likely that we will be in the upper end of the range," he told reporters.
President Vicente Fox pledged before taking office in 2000 to deliver growth rates approaching 7 percent a year, but his proposals for tax, labor and energy reforms have been blocked by the opposition-dominated
MEXICO CITY, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Mexico cut its forecast for 2005 economic growth to 3.5 percent after sluggish U.S. demand for car exports unexpectedly slowed expansion in the second quarter, a senior presidential advisor said on Thursday.
The government said this week Mexico's second-quarter gross domestic product grew only 3.1 percent, pushing its previous year-end growth forecast of 3.8 percent out of reach.
"That now looks a bit more difficult. We would have to have a very strong second half to achieve that growth," Eduardo Sojo, who is President Vicente Fox's public policy coordinator, told Radio Formula in an interview.
"We still
Mexico economy grows 3.3 pct in third quarter
Mexico's economy grew 3.3 percent in the third quarter, dragged down by weakness in the manufacturing sector despite strong farm output.
Compared to the second quarter, gross domestic product expanded by a seasonally adjusted 2.15 percent, the government said on Wednesday.
It had predicted third-quarter growth of around 3.5 percent from the same period a year ago, while a Reuters poll of analysts produced a consensus forecast of 3.2 percent growth.
Manufacturing grew only 0.2 percent in the third quarter as sluggishness at factories, including assembly plants that supply the struggling U.S. auto industry, limited
Official sees growth in Mexico economy
Mexico's economy could grow by 4 to 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter and 3.2 to 3.3 percent for the year, and the government will be able to offer pensions for the elderly poor in 2006, a government official said Wednesday.
Government institutions "have begun to give other services ... in ways that you are going to see soon," Eduardo Sojo, head of the presidential office of public policy, told a news conference.
"Pensions for elderly people who are in extreme poverty -- you'll see that next year," he said.
Outlining new anti-poverty initiatives, Sojo stressed that the
Mexico's Gil Sees Limited Risks To 2006 Growth Outlook
Mexican Finance Minister Francisco Gil said Wednesday he sees limited risk to government expectations of 3.6% to 3.7% economic growth in 2006, although sustained high growth isn't be likely until structural reforms are carried out.
The main risk is a slowdown in the global economy, particularly the U.S., Gil said at a press conference.
He said that the outlook for the U.S. economy this year remains rigorous, including the manufacturing sector that most influences Mexican industrial output.
On the domestic front, public infrastructure projects and housing construction are expected to remain
UPDATE 2-Mexico cuts 2005 growth forecast to 3.5 pct
Mexico's finance ministry on Tuesday cut its forecast for economic growth this year to 3.5 percent after manufacturers hit a soft patch due to weaker U.S. demand and a slump in agricultural output.
Alejandro Werner, the ministry's chief economist, said the economy would pick up pace in the second half of the year but that growth in gross domestic product would be less than earlier forecasts of 3.8 percent.
Mexico's economy grew a tame 3.1 percent in the second quarter, way below forecasts, as farming output fell and weak U.S. demand hit Mexico's
UPDATE 3-Mexico cuts 2005 growth forecast to 3.5 pct
Mexico's Finance Ministry on Tuesday cut its forecast for economic growth this year to 3.5 percent after manufacturers hit a soft patch because of weaker U.S. demand and a slump in agricultural output.
Alejandro Werner, the ministry's chief economist, said the economy would pick up pace in the second half of the year but gross domestic product growth would be less than earlier forecasts of 3.8 percent.
Mexico's economy grew a tame 3.1 percent in the second quarter, way below forecasts, as farming output fell and weak U.S. demand hit Mexico's car and truck
Mexico growth, current account paint rosier picture
A surprisingly low current account deficit and healthier-than-expected monthly growth data painted a rosier picture of Mexico's economy on Tuesday, but analysts warned it was too early to celebrate a recovery.
Mexico's central bank posted a $650 million current account deficit for the third quarter, about half what had been expected, and the government said the economy expanded 3.9 percent in September from a year ago.
But analysts said it was mostly oil exports and remittances that pushed the current account toward the black and noted that although agriculture and services fanned the economy, the
Mexico Industrial Output Probably Rose 3.9 Percent in November
Mexico's industrial output probably grew at its fastest pace in seven months in November, led by a surge in construction and automobile production.
Industrial output rose 3.9 percent in November from the same month last year after increasing 2.6 percent in October and 1.2 percent in September, according to the median of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
The pickup in industrial production indicates Latin America's second-largest economy is recovering from a slump as it benefits from stronger growth in the U.S., the buyer of about 85 percent of its exports. Industrial
Mexico 3rd-Qtr GDP Rises 3.3%, Fastest Pace in 2005
Mexico's economy grew at its fastest pace in three quarters in the July-to-September period, spurred by a surge in bank lending to consumers.
The economy expanded 3.3 percent in the quarter, more than the 3.2 percent median forecast from 18 analysts in a Bloomberg survey, a government report showed. The growth rate was higher than the 3.1 percent rate in the second quarter and 2.4 percent rate in the first quarter.
Consumer demand is rising as interest rates decline and banks boost lending, helping offset a slump in manufacturing exports to
